Our October Surprise

23Oct08

From the BBC

In the past, Republicans have tended to benefit from early voting.

“This is like a mirror image of what we’ve seen in the past,” says Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College. “This cannot be good news for John McCain”.

Overall, early voting is running about twice as high this year as in 2004 in many states.

In states that register voters by party, the party affiliation of early voters is known – though it is not certain that all registered Democrats will vote for their presidential candidate, and the data does not give information on how independent voters will cast their ballots.

Later they report that there’s some evidence that polls are tightening but since more people are voting early it makes it harder for McCain to close the gap. Also, however, is the fact that Colin Powel JUST came out for Obama and polls aren’t yet reflecting his leverage, if any, with voters.

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